Sea Level Rise and the Western Arctic

Around the world, sea levels are rising. Scientists have long predicted that climate warming would cause sea water to expand, and melt glaciers and polar ice sheets.

These maps, based on United States Geological Survey Digital Elevation Model (DEM) files, show as light blue regions that are on average one meter or less above sea level.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has concluded that doubling levels of carbon dioxide would cause sea level to rise between 0.15 and 0.95 meters by the year 2100, with a "best guess" of about half a meter.

What is less well known is that the Western Arctic is particularly vulnerable to sea level rise. Rich with river deltas and wetlands, the Western Arctic is among the most important waterfowl breeding and molting areas in the world. However, many of these low elevation areas, including the Mackenzie, Colville, Kobuk and Yukon-Kuskokwim deltas, the Tuktoyaktuk Peninsula, and the regions around Teshekpuk Lake and the Selawik National Wildlife Refuge contain vast coastal areas that are less than one meter above sea level. If carbon dioxide levels double, scientific projections suggest that these areas may be flooded.

Moreover, other factors, also driven by climate change, may be even more important in dramatically reshaping the coastline of the Western Arctic. These include more frequent fall storms, much larger storm surges because of greater areas of ice-free water, and ground subsidence as permafrost melts.

These changes are already having significant impacts on Arctic communities. Inuit peoples have a strong marine tradition, and their communities are almost uniformly located in low lying coastal and river delta regions. Buildings in Tuktoyaktuk have washed out to sea, and the community has had to move a school and police station away from the rapidly eroding coast. The archaeological remains and gravesites of the former Beaufort Sea communities of Imagaruk and Isuk have been drowned beneath the Arctic Ocean. The community of Newtok in the Yukon-Kuskokwim is currently in the process of being moved because of coastal erosion.

Coastal flooding in the Arctic is not only of local concern, because as the relatively warm ocean covers the colder land, the decay of organic matter will be accelerated and vast amounts of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, will be released.