Dr Norman Myers, a visiting fellow at Oxford University suggests that sea level rise and agricultural distribution caused by climate changes may displace millions of people in developing countries. His potentially conservative estimate of 150 million refugees equates to 1.5 percent of 2050's predicted global population of 10 billion. This compares to the estimated current 10 million environmental refugees or 0.2 percent of current global population.
Myers concludes, "The consequences of large numbers of environmental refugees would be among the most significant of all upheavals entrained by global warming."
(N. Myers, BioScience, v. 43 (11), December 1993)
In China, sea level rise coupled with local subsidence would flood all of Shanghai and around 96 percent of the surrounding province. The Chinese government calculates that 30 million people may be displaced due global warming impacts. This is considered a highly conservative estimate and alternative calculations put the figure around 72 million.
Myers estimates that 142 million people may inhabit coastal India in 2050 and suggests,"...it seems appropriate to propose that India's total of flood zone refugees alone could be anywhere between 20 million and 60 million, with 30 million taken here as a conservative working figure".
Seven percent of Bangladesh could be permanently lost to sea level rise coupled with land subsistence. Even if massive engineering works were undertaken (long term costs are estimated to be US$10 billion for a country with a present day GNP of US$24 billion), an estimated 15 million people would be displaced. Problems may also be exacerbated by inland flooding; in September 1988 river flooding left three quarters of the country inundated and 50 million people left homeless. Global warming may increase river flow by at least a half again during the monsoons and melting Himalayan glaciers may increase flooding further. Many experts believe inland flooding may by a greater danger to Bangladesh than coastal flooding.
According to the latest detailed analysis, Egypt would lose between 12 and 15 percent of its arable land. Given Egypt's predicted population for 2050 it is realistic to anticipate that sea level rise may displace more than 14 million people. Myers cautions, "This prognosis, moreover, is cautious and conservative. There would be additional problems, such as intrusion of saltwater up the foreshortened Nile, that would further reduce the irrigated lands supporting virtually the whole of Egypt's agriculture". Egypt already imports well over half its food.
Other delta areas at risk include Indonesia, Thailand, Pakistan, Mozambique, Gambia, Senegal, and Suriname. A number of island states are also at risk, such as the Maldives, Kiribati, Tuvalu, the Marshalls plus dozens of states in the Caribbean. Around 1 million people are likely to have to evacuate permanently and as many as 46 to 50 million may find their lives "critically affected".
Detailed analysis of the impact of climate change on agriculture suggests that by the year 2060 global warming may decrease cereal production in developing countries by 9-11 percent. Africa may be particularly vulnerable to agricultural disruption caused by global warming.
Myers estimates that 50 million people globally may be displaced due to climate change-induced famine. He also cites another estimate that predicts that the figure may exceed 50 million in Africa alone. Myers also warns that sea level rise and agricultural disruption will not the only causes of human migration. Severe water problems may affect three billion people globally by 2015 and this would encourage mass migrations; deforestation, soil erosion and desertification may also lead to large movements of people.
(N. Myers, "Environmental Refugees in a Globally Warmed World", BioScience, v.43 (11), December 1993.)
NOTES: Environmental refugees have significant economic, socio- cultural and political consequences. Currently, developed nations pay US$8 billion each year to accommodate refugees, one seventh of the foreign aid supplied to developing countries. To quote a former UN High Commissioner for Refugees, Prince Saddrudhin Aga Khan,
"People flee their homes in search of food and jobs...as the victims move, they carry their famine with them, much as they carry an infectious disease. They impose intolerable burdens in terms of food requirements on the territory they enter. At the same time, they flood the labour market, creating a slump in wages, and endangering the economic security of the local population. Fuse the two elements, and you have a perfect recipe for widespread human suffering, social disorder and political instability".
Myers suggests that political tensions over land claims may lead to significant political insecurity and possibly war.
(N. Myers, "Environmental Refugees in a Globally Warmed World," BioScience, v.43 (11), December 1993).
--- TABLE ---
Country or region Total refugees foreseen (millions)
China 30
India 30
Bangladesh 15
Egypt 14
Other delta areas and coastal zones 10
Island states 1
Agriculturally dislocated areas 50
Total 150
(N. Myers, BioScience, v. 43 (11), December 1993)
GREENPEACE Climate Impacts Database