Short Political Chronology: 1988-1998

October 1988. Toronto, Canada: "Toronto Conference on the Changing Atmosphere". This was the first major international meeting bringing governments and scientists together to discuss action on climate change. At this conference, Industrialised countries' governments pledged to voluntar ily cut CO2 emissions by 20% by the year 2005 (the so-called "Toronto target"). This meeting was also critical in the establishment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), an international grouping of over 300 of the world's best climat e scientists charged with reviewing and reporting on the latest international science, impacts and responses to climate change.

August 1990, Sundsvall, Sweden: Release of the IPCC's First Assessment Report. This report said 60 to 80% cuts in CO2 emissions would be needed to stabilise the concentration of this green house gas in the atmosphere - already 25% higher than they were before industrialisation started the intensive use of fossil fuels. The strong scientific concern over the dangers of climate change in IPCC First Assessment Report triggered the negotiatio n of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.

November 1990, Geneva, Switzerland: Second World Climate Conference - The Ministerial Declaration converted the IPCC report into a major political push to negotiate a global response to the threat of climate change by calling for negotiations on a framework convention on climate change to begin without delay, and reaffirmed the wish that the convention "contain real commitments by the international community". This declaration reaffirm ed that "where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty should not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent such environmental degradation." And further agreed that the "ultimate global objective should be to stabilise greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with climate".

December, 1990, UN, New York: UN General Assembly Resolution 45/212 established the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee on a Framework Convention on Climate Change (INC) under the auspices of the General Assembly itself with a mandate to develop the convention, if possible by the time of the Earth Summit in June 1992 on December 21, 1990 February 1991, Chantilly, Washington DC, USA. First Session of Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee on a Framework Convention on Climate Change, marred by diplomatic squabbling over official arrangements and outbreak of the Gulf War.

May, 1991, UN New York: Final negotiations concluded, in a late night session, on the UN Framework Convention in Climate Change. As a first step, industrialised countries agreed to bring their CO2 emissions back to 1990 levels by the year 2000. To the disappointment of most countries, under extreme pressure from the Bush Administration, the emission commitments in the Convention were not legally-binding.

June 1992, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: In a hail of self-congratulation, the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) was opened for Signature at the Rio Earth Summit. As at 20-July-98 th e Convention has been ratified by 175 countries and the European Union.(http://www.unfccc.de/fccc/conv)

September, 1994: Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) submits a protocol proposal for adoption in Berlin in March 1995, calling for industrialized countries to reduce their emissions o f CO2 by 20% from 1990 levels by the year 2005.

March 1995: The Berlin "Climate Summit." The first Ministerial level full meeting of the Convention, also known as the Conference of the Parties (COP 1), was held. The Berlin meeting found that the agreements of the Convention were too weak to meet the objective of protecting the planet from dangerous climate change, particularly as it said nothing about the post-2000 period. Parties agreed the "Berlin Mandate"-to negotiate a Protocol or o ther legal agreement by the time of the third Conference of Parties (COP3) containing specific "emissions limitations and reductions." The AOSIS protocol was included only as an element in the negotiations.

August, 1995, Geneva, Switzerland: First meeting of the Ad Hoc Group on the Berlin Mandate meets. The US deploy many go-slow tactics, calling for further study of the issue.

December 1995, Rome, Italy: The IPCC Second Assessment Report was published. Involving well over 2000 scientists and experts, the Report concluded that "The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate" - that is, we are already seeing the first signs of climate change.

July 1996, Geneva, Switzerland: The Second Conference of Parties (COP2). Whilst making little progress on CO2 emission reduction targets for a new Protocol, a major breakthrough occurred when the US announced that it wanted the emission commitments in this protocol to be legally binding. The US also signalled for the first time that it wanted to include emission trading in any new agreement. The vast majority of Ministers present at the meeting signed onto the "Geneva Declaration" which says:

the new IPCC science provides the basis for "urgently strengthening action";
the world faces "significant, often adverse impacts" from climate change;
legally binding "significant overall reductions" in greenhouse gas emissions should be negotiated by the next Conference of the Parties (COP3).

March 1997, Brussels, Belgium: European Union Environment Ministers adopt an emissions reduction target for the Kyoto negotiations of 15% by the year 2010. The EU proposal generated much diplomatic activity at the Sixth Session of the AGBM in Bonn and was attacked vigorously by the USA and Japan.

July, 1997, UN, New York: Five years after the Rio Earth Summit at which the Climate Convention was adopted World leaders meets at a UN General Assembly Special Session to review progress on implementing the commitments made in 1992. With the world environment continuing to deteriorate there was a mood of pessimism over the meeting, with the only concrete progress on the horizon, the Kyoto Protocol negotiations. President Clinton sp oke to the General Assembly saying that " we will bring to the Kyoto conference in December a strong American commitment to realistic and binding limits that will significantly reduce our emissions of greenhouse gases."

October, 1997, Bonn, Germany: The USA announce its position for the Kyoto Protocol negotiations of a stabilization of greenhouse gas emissions at 1990 levels by 2010 and a five percent r eduction by 2015. Japan calls for a nominal target of 5% emission reduction by 2010 in three greenhouse gases which would not be legally binding. The complex structure of the proposal could not hide the fact that at best it would have led to a stabilis ation of emissions from the developed countries, and therefore was never a serious negotiation tool.

December 1997, Kyoto, Japan: Kyoto Protocol negotiations conclude with the adoption of legally binding greenhouse gas emission targets for all industrialized countries. The Protocol also included provisions for emission trading between industrialized countries. The overall nominal effect of the Kyoto protocol is a reduction of 5.2% by 2010 against 1990 levels. However the agreement has many loopholes and could lead to emissions risin g above 1990 levels (Link to Section 1 of Greenpeace Analysis of the Kyoto Protocol).Under the protocol Japan must reduce by 6%, USA by 7%, and the European Union by 8%. Other countries are allowed to stabilize (New Zealand, Russia, Ukraine), or increase their emissions (Norway 1% and Australia 8%). (Link to Table 4 of Greenpeace Analysis of the Kyoto Protocol)

November 1998, Buenos Aires, Argentina: Fourth Conference of the Parties to the Climate Convention. This meeting will be negotiating key issues left unresolved in the Kyoto Protocol neg otiations, including the Clean Development Mechanism, emissions trading, and technology transfer.