Briefing 6

Vision 2030: The Future Is Here

Danish Companies
Multinationals
Exports of Wind Energy
Offshore Wind Energy
Know-how Exports

How Wind Energy Works for the Environment
Wind Facts

Contacts
Danish Wind Turbine Manufacturers Association
BTM (Birger T. Madsen) Consult
Danish Energy Agency

What does the future hold for wind power? Leading Danish consultant Birger Madsen has produced the following scenario[1]:

By 2030 wind power has developed into one of the leading electricity generating technologies. This is due to the fact that it is the cheapest way of reducing CO₂ emissions.

More stringent international rules and obligations towards environmentally friendly energy conversion and more efficient use of power gave the international wind turbine industry a significant boost around the year 2000.

The annual installation rate of wind power reached some 45,000 megawatts during 2029, and wind energy was supplying 7 per cent of global electricity consumption at the beginning of the year. Wind power's share of the electricity market is still increasing.

By 2050 we expect wind energy to cover 15 per cent of world-wide electricity consumption. One reason for this increasing share is the growing emphasis on electricity saving and the phasing out of old coal and gas-fired plant.

Danish Companies

Danish companies and their international partners have retained their historically strong position as the world's leading suppliers of wind energy systems. The turnover of the Danish wind energy industry is estimated to be US$ 5 to 6 billion (1997 prices), corresponding to a world market share of 30 per cent.

During the first years of the 21st century manufacturing costs for wind energy systems were halved due to optimisation of machinery and the new concept of lightweight, flexible technology using new materials.

Multinationals

Companies involved in the wind sector have become multinationals. Danish companies have also kept a significant share of research and development work, mainly due to the interventionist Danish energy policy, which has created the necessary framework conditions throughout the past 50 years.

American energy policy since 2005 has also improved conditions for the US wind industry significantly. United States manufacturers are now fully competitive with both Danish and other European companies, although still not quite comparable with the thriving Asian market.

Since the large international energy corporations entered the wind energy sector around the year 2000, and alliances were subsequently formed between electricity generating companies and wind turbine manufacturers, the industry has seen the growth of financially strong companies.
We estimate that the sector now employs about 30,000 people in Denmark and four to five times that number world-wide.

Exports of Wind Energy

In the most recent annual report (2029) Denmark has 3,200 MW of wind energy installed on land, and 6,000 MW offshore. Half of the annual electricity output of 23 Terrawatt hours (TWh) is used domestically, whilst the rest is exported on contract to other European countries.

The environmental quota system within the European Union and the Central European Association, established 25 years ago, has created a continuously growing market for CO₂-free electricity. A large share of the electricity output has been bartered, however, for Russian supplies of natural gas.

Offshore Wind Energy

The offshore expansion of the Danish electricity system between 2000 and 2010 was decisive in creating the strong position of offshore wind technology today.

Sweden, Germany, the UK and Denmark have built offshore wind parks with a combined capacity of 20,000 MW. Concessions for wind power exploitation in both the North Sea and the Baltic are offered on a basis similar to oil concessions during the fossil fuel era. Concessions for a further 30,000 MW have been put up for tender, and are expected to be on-line before 2050.

Know-how Exports

At the beginning of 2030 the largest potential for the Danish wind energy sector is in the delivery of both know-how and systems to the wind industries of Asia, South America and Africa - markets with which the industry has been familiar for more than 25 years. In Europe, re-powering of existing wind parks built 20 to 30 years ago is providing a significant market.

A niche product with an apparently bright future is wind power based electricity charging stations for the transport sector. The number of electricity and hydrogen powered vehicles, as well as hybrids, is currently growing at a rate of 10 to 20 per cent per annum. Today, half of the vehicles in use are powered in this way.

How Wind Energy Works for the Environment

Most Danish wind turbines have three blades made from fibreglass reinforced polyester or epoxy. Set on top of a tall tower, the nacelle to which they are fixed can turn to catch the prevailing wind. Inside this housing, a generator transfers the power of the wind into useful electricity. This is then cabled into the local grid. The intermittency of the wind presents no major problem: the power simply flows into the electricity system like a stream joining a river.

Wind turbines vary in capacity from a few kilowatts to the most powerful now on the market - 1,500 kilowatts (1.5 megawatts). This can provide enough power for over 1,000 homes. Apart from foundations and access tracks, there is little disturbance to the local environment. Farming can continue right up to the base. Initial problems with the sound of wind turbines have largely been solved by improved technology. Numerous studies show that birds quickly learn to avoid wind turbines and that overhead power lines and road traffic are much more dangerous to them.

Unlike coal-fired power plants, wind energy produces no health-damaging air pollution or acid rain. Nor does it create carbon dioxide, the leading greenhouse gas now destabilising the world's atmosphere. A 1.5 megawatt turbine can avoid the mining of 2,000 tonnes of coal each year.

Wind Facts

• Denmark now has 4,900 wind turbines supplying 7% of the country's electricity. This is a higher proportion than anywhere else in the world.

• In the 1930s, over 30,000 windmills were used in Denmark to power farm machinery and pump water. By the year 2030 less than 4,000 modern wind turbines could provide half the country's electricity.

• A major study by the Danish Energy Agency concluded that wind turbines built out at sea could produce power just as cheaply as on land.

• Denmark's wind energy industry employs more people than the country's fishing fleet.

• A recent opinion poll showed that Vestas, the largest Danish wind turbine manufacturer, was the country's second most "environmentally friendly" company.

• Denmark's first large offshore wind park should be in place soon after the millennium. The target is for 4,000 megawatts of offshore wind capacity by 2030 - enough to satisfy 40% of the country's electricity demand.

• Denmark has the most ambitious wind energy target in the world - to get 50% of its electricity from the wind by 2030.
  

• Wind power produces minimal amounts of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas. A modern 1.5 megawatt wind turbine can avoid an annual 5,000 tonnes of CO₂ being emitted by burning coal.
  

• Europe's largest wind farm is at Carno in Wales. It produces enough electricity for 25,000 homes. The wind turbines were built in Denmark.
  

• Wind turbines are Denmark's fourth largest export commodity.

• Wind energy in Denmark produces enough power for 440,000 households and saves an annual 1.5 billion tonnes of polluting carbon dioxide.
  

• Over 35,000 wind turbines have now been built around the world. At the beginning of 1993 there were just 22,000.
  

• An estimated 40,000 jobs have been created by the wind industry around the world, most of those by Danish companies.

Contacts

For more information on the Danish wind energy industry:

Danish Wind Turbine Manufacturers Association

Vester Voldgade 106,
DK1552 Kobenhavn V,
Denmark.
Tel: +45 3373 0330; Fax: +45 3373 0333;
Email: danish@windpower.dk
Website: http://www.windpower.dk

BTM (Birger T. Madsen) Consult

I.C.Christensens Allé 1,
DK-6950 Ringkøbing,
Denmark.
Tel: +45 97 32 52 99; Fax: +45 97 32 55 93;
Email: btmcwind@post4.tele.dk

Danish Energy Agency

Amaliegade 44,
1256 Kobenhavn K,
Denmark.
Tel: +45 33 92 67 00; Email ens@ens.dk
General information: Birgit Blaesborg
Offshore information: Lise Wied Kirkegaard

[1]Adapted from an article by Birger Madsen in Wind Power Note 13, May 1997, Danish Wind Turbine Manufacturers Association.