Introduction

The Arctic is home to some of the world's most distinctive mammals, millions of migratory and resident birds, a rich ice-edge community, and some of the world's major fisheries. It a biologically and culturally unique environment and one of the last places on Earth where natural conditions still prevail over much of the region. 1

Unlike the ice-bound Antarctic, however, the Arctic has also been home to humans for more than 10,000 years. Today the region is culturally, politically, demographically and economically diverse, with settlements ranging from small indigenous communities to modern industrial cities. 2 Indigenous cultures include Aleuts, who live primarily in coastal southwest Alaska; Inuit, who live on the coast and inland from northwestern Alaska east to Greenland; and Athabascans, who live mainly inland in eastern Alaska, the central Yukon, and the Northwest Territories of Canada; Dene, Saami, and Native groups in northern Russia.

The environment and human cultures of the Arctic are inextricably linked. 3 Indigenous populations in the region maintain a strong connection to the environment through subsistence on wildlife and natural resources, a practice that has endured over thousands of years. 4

The Arctic and its people, however, face drastic change. The global build-up of greenhouse gases has the potential to dramatically alter both the Arctic environment and its ecosystems. Given their close dependence on natural resources, global climate change is expected to have immediate and significant consequences for Arctic peoples. 5 Some species of terrestrial and marine wildlife may become threatened or even disappear. Land will grow increasingly unstable. Extreme weather events may occur, as sea levels rise along coastal areas. Arctic communities could also face serious health complications. What happens to the Arctic and its human population concerns us all, for the response of the area and its people to climate change serves as an indicator for what may occur in other regions, and to the planet as a whole. 6

Human Influence on Climate

The United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), reflecting the consensus of 2,500 of the world's leading scientists, recently issued its landmark finding that human activities have begun to significantly modify global climate. The global average surface temperature has increased approximately 1 degree F over the past century, and IPCC predictions indicate that the Earth will warm by an additional 1.8 to 6.1 degrees F by 2100, with a middle estimate of 3.6 degrees F. Even under the best-case scenarios, the rate of future warming will probably be, according to the IPCC," greater than any seen in the past 10,000 years." 7

A variety of human activities produce greenhouse gases, like carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N20), and hydrofluorocarbons (CFCs, HCFCs, and HFCs), methane (CH4), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), increasing their atmospheric concentrations. These human-induced emissions trap the sun's heat and warm the planet. In the U.S., fossil fuel combustion is the most significant cause of greenhouse gas emissions, and has contributed to dramatic increases in CO2 levels. Since pre-industrial times, atmospheric CO2 concentrations have gone up 30 percent, from 280 parts per million to more than 360 parts per million; in the last 35 years alone, CO2 levels increased over 12 percent. If this trend continues, CO2 concentrations will double by the end of the next century. Humans will continue to drive future climate change, with potentially catastrophic and irreversible consequences, if action is not taken now to reduce greenhouse gases. 8

The Arctic and Its People: Vulnerable to Change

Scientists have long predicted that human-induced climate change will have its first and most severe impacts in polar regions. The Arctic is more sensitive to climate change than perhaps any other place on Earth, and its unique physical characteristics help explain why the region is so vulnerable. With extremely low temperatures, limited sunlight and precipitation, and a short growing season (averaging only 50 to 100 days), the region has one of the most severe environments on the planet. Arctic sea ice, snow cover, tundra and permafrost are highly susceptible to even subtle variations in sunlight, surface temperature, and precipitation. 9 Ecosystems in the Arctic exist in a delicate balance with the region's climate, and thus are more sensitive to change than temperate or tropical ecosystems. 10

Human communities also survive in a delicate balance with the Arctic climate, and are therefore equally sensitive to change. Hundreds and even thousands of years ago, Arctic populations adapted to gradual or even rapid environmental change by settling amid favorable climate conditions and along the paths of animal migration. Today, though, Arctic people cannot adapt or relocate as easily, because most now live in permanent communities. People's dependence on the natural world, combined with the Arctic's natural vulnerability, magnify the potential effects of global climate change on Arctic inhabitants.

Change Is Underway: Indigenous Accounts

Indigenous communities, whose knowledge of the land, sea, and ice dates back thousands of years, are already reporting signs which may be due to significant climatic change. Inuit hunters have noticed discoloration and thinning of sea ice, changes in open water areas within the ice, and the presence of animals not previously found in their region. Sea ice is now unstable where hunters previously knew it to be safe. 11 The Gwich'in Athabascan people in Arctic Village, Alaska have witnessed dramatic changes in weather, hydrology, vegetation, and animal distribution patterns, changes that have occurred during residents' lifetimes. Their observations both precede and corroborate scientific predictions for the region. 12

Other signs of change: Annual temperatures have increased many times the global rate, about 2.7 degrees F over recent decades, over parts of Canada's western Arctic, Alaska, and eastern Siberia. In central Alaska, temperatures have increased by 7.2 degrees F over the past 30 years. During the summer of 1995, ice cellars in Alaska were too warm to keep foods frozen. 13

Vulnerable Communities: The Mackenzie Basin

Nowhere is climate change more apparent than in the Mackenzie River Basin, in northwestern Canada. The dangers of climate change are the most pressing here, a region which contains many climate-sensitive landscapes and transition zones, as well as many human settlements. 14 Recent studies show that with the exception of the Antarctic Peninsula, the Mackenzie Basin is heating up faster than any other place on Earth, at three times the global rate. The serious regional implications of this warming trend prompted a major Canadian Government study -- the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study -- published this year.

This warming trend poses a real and immediate threat to the Dene and Inuit people. Extremely warm temperatures sparked widespread wildfires during the summer of 1995 -- the hottest June in Canada's recorded history -- forcing the evacuation of Tulita, a small Basin community. Wildlife which sustained local populations will probably not return to the area for many years as a result of the fires. Rising sea levels threaten coastal communities. And warmer temperatures and melting permafrost have triggered mudslides along the Mackenzie River Valley, damaging local fish populations and affecting water levels throughout the area. These mudslides are likely to increase under even warmer conditions.

What Will Further Climate Change Mean for Arctic People?

Threatening a Subsistence-Based Way of Life

Nowhere on Earth are animals more important to human existence than in the Arctic. 15 Indigenous people have subsisted on natural resources in the Arctic for thousands of years. Although technology has changed and cash now plays an important role in the economy, dependence on natural resources continues today in villages and in many non-indigenous rural households, as well. 16 Climate-induced changes in subsistence opportunities, however, may pose the greatest threat of all to the continuity of indigenous cultures. 17

The physical and biological impacts of a warmer climate on Arctic ecosystems could be tremendous, affecting nearly all marine- and land-based wildlife species. Even a few degrees' increase in seawater temperature could affect the Arctic marine ecosystem in many ways. 18 Warmer temperatures could lead to increased biological productivity at the lower parts of the marine ecosystem. Loss of sea ice would threaten large populations of fish, whales, walrus, seals and polar bears. In the Bering Sea, there is no doubt that industrial fishing practices have contributed to the 20-year decline in a number of sea fur seals, sea lions, seabirds, pollock, and several other fish species, but recent reports indicate that climate change may also be a factor in the species' decline. 19 Population declines have had a significant impact on Alaska Native communities and their subsistence activities. Warmer water temperatures could also threaten freshwater fish habitat. Salmon -- a common subsistence fish -- is particularly vulnerable to temperature fluctuations, because it is adapted to very specific thermal regimes in both fresh and salt water. 20

Climate-induced changes in Arctic tundra vegetation could have profound effects on grazing animals, especially caribou and reindeer, who rely on abundant vegetation and good foraging conditions to raise well-nourished calves. Scientists predict that future climatic changes will be greater than any ever experienced by Arctic vegetation, changes that may cause major vegetation zones to shift significantly northward. 21 In addition, climate change could affect regular freeze-thaw cycles, which have important implications for reindeer populations in relation to their ability to find food. This winter, an estimated 10,000 reindeer died of starvation on Russia's far northeast Chukotsk Peninsula, when inclement weather patterns formed a thick ice crust over pastures, making it impossible for the animals to graze. 22 While reindeer populations often suffer from these freeze-thaw cycles, future variations in weather and climate could intensify the cycles' effects on reindeer. 23

These potential losses could threaten human nutrition for rural indigenous and non-indigenous households, plus eliminate a whole way of life for Arctic communities. Nearly 70 percent of rural communities in Alaska either use or harvest wild fish and game. 24 The primary focus of subsistence activities for Inupiat, Yup'ik and Athabascan communities are salmon, herring, and other fresh and saltwater fish, bowhead and beluga whales, walrus, seals, and caribou. 25

Subsistence activities provide more than nutrition; they provide basic values, a sense of family and community, and a great level of interdependence among households. In the Arctic, no other set of activities provides a similar foundation for continuity between generations. 26 Norma Kassi, of the Vunut Gwich'in people in the community of Old Crow on the Porcupine River, Yukon Territory, writes of the traditional subsistence-based life of her people, their deep feeling for this way of life, and their dependence on wildlife and other resources: "Our people are directly affected by global climate change ... there are no compromises we can make. There are no changes we can make in these old ways. We cannot be compensated for any damages that might occur to our land, the birds, animals, water, fish ... We have no alternatives to our way of life. This is the only one we know. Without this way of life, we will disappear ... " The Porcupine caribou herd provides the single, most important food source for 13 villages where Kassi's relatives live. 27

Thawing Permafrost and Land Erosion

"In areas of discontinuous permafrost in Alaska, thawing is not something we are expecting to happen in 100 years or so; it's happening now," says Tom Osterkamp, a permafrost expert at the University of Alaska. 28 Melting permafrost is one of the most important consequences of global warming: small disruptions in this insulating organic layer of tundra can produce huge alterations in wildlife habitat, as well as unstable substrates for roads, pipelines, and buildings. This problem already threatens many Arctic communities and is likely to get even worse. 29

Yupik elders in the small coastal Alaskan village of Kipnuk believe the village is sinking, due to warming permafrost. Buildings in the village show signs of an unstable ground surface, signs that are consistent with those of an area that sits above thawing land. 30 In Kotzebue, Alaska, the hospital had to be relocated because it was sinking into the ground. 31 Research shows that all permafrost south of the Yukon River is warming, creeping closer to the melting point: in most cases, there is not one temperature degree left between ice and water. Widespread thawing would change the face of southern Alaska. 32

Even a gradual increase in temperature could cause the top 30 or more feet of Arctic permafrost to thaw, disrupting construction, engineering and surface transportation. Warming in the Arctic region could significantly affect such activities, particularly in areas where there is a lot of subsurface ice. 33 In addition to building damage, thawing permafrost can damage roads, destroy large sections of forest, and cause dangerous mudslides, like those seen in the Mackenzie Basin. Thawing permafrost may also release CO2 and methane into the environment, considerably exacerbating the greenhouse effect. Studies suggest that these changes may already be underway. In recent decades, the Alaska tundra has turned from a sink (or net absorber) of CO2 to a net source to the atmosphere.

Human Health Consequences

The World Health Organization considers the effects of climate change as one of the greatest public health challenges for the 21st century. 34 Climate change could, potentially, have a number of consequences for human health, since any disturbances in physical and natural systems would threaten people, as well. According to the IPCC, deteriorating social and economic circumstances brought on by climate change could have important effects on human health effects. 35 If climate change disrupts subsistence livelihoods in the Arctic, communities could face increased poverty, drug and alcohol abuse, and a host of other social problems. 36 These problems are already common in some communities, where traditional hunting and fishing-based economies have given way to less reliable and less predictable employment. The social and cultural impacts of a changing environment could be substantial -- if not overwhelming -- to many communities.

Another critical global change issue -- stratospheric ozone depletion -- also poses risks to human health in the Arctic. Like climate change, ozone depletion is caused by the interaction of chemicals -- chlorine radicals -- in the atmosphere. Ozone depletion leads to increased ultraviolet radiation at ground level, which can be damaging to humans, plant and marine life at sustained levels of exposure. Though scientific knowledge is incomplete, UV exposure has been associated with depression of the immune system, skin cancer, eye lesions and cataracts in humans. 37 In 1995, severe ozone depletion occurred over central Russia, and in 1996 over western Greenland.

Extreme Weather, Rising Sea Levels

Finally, climate change is likely to affect overall weather patterns in the Arctic, generating more frequent Arctic storms and other extreme weather events. 38 Weather is an all-important factor of Arctic life; In Canada's Inuktituk language, for example, there are 25 ways to express types of snow. 39 Floods, storms, and extreme cold greatly affect human capacities to hunt. Since animals such as caribou and salmon are generally available only during short periods in summer and early autumn, more frequent extreme weather events could disrupt seasonal animal harvests.

Warmer temperatures and melting sea ice are also expected to increase sea levels along the Arctic coastal region. 40 Rising seas and coastal erosion directly threaten Tuktoyaktuk, a Dene and Inuit community located at the edge of the Arctic Ocean. Ice which once protected the coast has receded out to sea. Extensive erosion washed away the school, and has forced the village to relocate many other structures.

Conclusion

The implications of warming on the Arctic are complex and not yet fully understood. Yet they extend well beyond the immediate region, and may have dramatic global repercussions. Local warming may, in fact, accelerate global warming and its effects. Potentially drastic changes in the Arctic serve as a wake up call to governments and individuals alike to take action now. Greenpeace fully supports deep reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, and a shift away from a fossil fuel-based economy to one based on clean, renewable energy sources. These alternatives have the potential to meet the world's energy needs, create jobs, encourage world trade in clean technologies, and reduce energy costs while protecting the planet. The barriers to these solutions are not technical, but political. As nations seek ways to cut greenhouse gases, Greenpeace calls on world leaders to invest in, and implement, renewable energies and efficiency now, for a sustainable planet tomorrow.

Endnotes

1 Adam Markham, Nigel Dudley and Sue Stolton, Climate Change, Biodiversity and the Survival of Species, World Wildlife Fund publication, Gland, Switzerland, 1993, pp. 68.

2 Arctic Research Consortium of the United States (ARCUS), People and the Arctic: The Human Dimensions of the Arctic System, Prospectus for Research, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, 1997, pp. 1-2.

3 Ibid, p. 1.

4 David L. Peterson and Daryll R. Johnson, eds., Human Ecology and Climate Change: People and Resources in the Far North, Taylor and Francis, Washington, D.C., 1995, p. 12.

5 ARCUS, op. cit., p. 1.

6 Peterson and Johnson, op. cit., p. xvi.

7 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group I Report, The Science of Climate Change, 1996.

8 Ibid.

9 Gunter Weller, Chapter on Arctic, in Encyclopedia of Earth System Science, vol 1, Academic Press, Inc, San Diego, 1993.

10 F. Stuart Chapin, et al, Arctic Ecosystems in a Changing Climate: an Ecophysiological Perspective, Academic Press, Inc., San Diego, 1992, p. 11 & p. 31.

11 Testimony of Rosemarie Kuptana, President, Inuit Circumpolar Conference , before the Second Conference of the Parties to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, Geneva, Switzerland, July 16-19, 1996.

12 The Vulnerability and Role of the Arctic in Global Climate Change, in Oil in Arctic Waters: The Untold Story of Offshore Drilling in Alaska, publication of Greenpeace Alaska Field Office, Anchorage, AK, 1996, p. 111.

13 ARCUS, op. cit., p. 2.

14 Peterson and Johnson, op. cit., p. 303.

15 Ibid, p. 56.

16 Ibid, p. 155.

17 Ibid, p. 152-155.

18 Vera Alexander, Arctic Marine Ecosystems, in Robert L. Peters and Thomas E. Lovejoy, Global Warming and Biological Diversity, Yale University Press, New Haven, 1992, pp. 229.

19 National Research Council, Committee on the Bering Sea Ecosystem, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 1996; and James Balsinger, Workshop Report: Bering Sea Ecosystem Study, Anchorage, AK, 1995

20 Peterson and Johnson, op. cit., p. 133. For more on the effects of climate change on fish, see John G. Eaton and Robert M. Scheller, Effects of climate warming on fish thermal habitat in streams of the United States, in Limnology and Oceanography, vol. 41, no.5, July 1996, pp. 1109-1115.

21 F. Stuart Chapin, et al., op. cit., p. 446.

22 Jay R. Malcolm, The Demise of an Ecosystem: Arctic Wildlife in a Changing Climate, World Wildlife Fund Report, Washington, D.C., 1996, p. 5.

23 The Nordic Arctic Environment: Unspoiled, Exploited, Polluted?, published by the Nordic Council of Ministers, Copenhagen, 1996, p. 110.

24 Peterson and Johnson, op. cit., p. 157.

25 Ibid, p. 141.

26 Ibid, p. 160-161.

27 Norma Kassi, Native perspective on climate change, in Impacts of Climate Change on Resource Management in the North, G. Wall, ed., Department of Geography Occasional Paper no. 16, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, 1993, pp 43-49.

28 Tom Osterkamp, in Geophysical Institute Quarterly, vol. 12, no. 2, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, winter-spring 1994.

29 ARCUS, op. cit., p. 25.

30 Yukon News, January 31, 1997.

31 ARCUS, op. cit., p. 2.

32 Yukon News, op. cit.

33 ARCUS, op. cit., p. 11.

34 Task Force of the World Health Organization, World Meteorological Organization, and U.N. Environment Programme, Climate Change and Human Health, A.J. McMichael, et al, eds., World Health Organization, Geneva, 1996

35 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group II Report, Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific - Technical Analyses, Human Population Health (chapter 18), 1996.

36 ARCUS, op. cit., p. 30.

37 Task Force of the World Health Organization, et al, op. cit., pp. 161-163.

38 Peterson and Johnson, op. cit., p. 27.

39 Ibid, p. 321.

40 Ibid, p. 21.