In December 1997, world governments meet in Japan to agree limits on the emissions of greenhouses gases.
The European Union (EU) will have a profound influence on these negotiations. Within the EU, ministers already agree climate change is a serious problem requiring urgent political attention. Yet emissions are increasing, and there is a gap between words and action.
The June 1996 European Council recognised that "significant overall reductions" of greenhouse gas emissions are required after the year 2000. A month later, EU ministers, along with another 120 nations, agreed a "Ministerial Declaration" at the second annual top level meeting of the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC). They agreed that the latest science conclusions:
"provide a scientific basis for urgently strengthening action at the global, regional and national levels...to limit and reduce emissions of greenhouse gases."
and that
"The projected changes in climate will result in significant, often adverse impacts on many ecological systems and socio-economic sectors, including food supply and water resources, and on human health."
They said a key part of the response should be "quantified legally binding objectives for emissions limitations and significant overall reductions within specified timeframes...of greenhouse gas emissions".56
The gap between words and action
EU credibility at stake: While the EU has taken a high profile, with respect to a progressive position on climate change in the international negotiations, there is an increasing gap between its words and its actions. Worldwide greenhouse gas reduction targets will be negotiated at the UN Climate Conference in Japan in December 1997.
While the March Environment Council agreed a negotiating position of 15 per cent CO2 reduction by 2010, the EU, as yet, has made no commitment to a target for 2005. Significant doubt exists as to whether the EU will even meet the current stabilisation commitment in the absence of further action by member states and the EU as a whole. EU Commission estimates indicate emissions may be 5 per cent higher in 2000 over 1990 levels.
Emissions escalate post 2000: After 2000, the EU is in increasing trouble from escalating CO2 emissions. Without further action, EU and International Energy Agency (IEA) calculations predict that by 2010, CO2 emissions will increase by 9-17 per cent.
More polluting power stations: The EU's Energy Directorate predicts that 456,00MWp of new or replacement electric generating capacity will be needed by 2020 under business as usual. Less than 1 per cent of the projected 543 billion ECU cost of this new power generation would be spent on renewable energy sources. This would mean a 30 per cent overall increase of 1990 electricity generating capacity, with fossil fuel emissions from Europe increasing by 20 per cent.
Inadequate renewables commitment: Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) highlighted the current EU failure to push renewables forward in the EU in a July, 1996 resolution. This called for renewables to meet 15 per cent of the EU energy mix by 2010, meet an 840 million ECU budget by 1998 and provide more money for research and development support programmes. The EU's alternative energy programme ALTENER has set a more conservative goal to increase the use of renewable energy sources in the EU to 8 per cent by 2005.
Inadequate funding: The current Altener budget is just 40 million ECU from 1993-97. This is a fraction of the 100 billion ECU going to agriculture, structural and cohesion funds. There is a significant potential for the energy related aspects of this funding to prioritise renewables and energy efficiency projects Direct subsidies to fossil fuel and nuclear in the EU are approximately $15 billion a year.
Collective solutions: It is in the interests of the EU's collective approach to greenhouse gas emissions to ensure that countries like Greece, Spain, Ireland and Portugal with rapidly rising emissions are at the centre of the EU's solar renewable energy efforts.
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