Nuclear Power: World Status Report 1997

At the end of 1996, there were about 440 commercial nuclear power reactors in operation world-wide, with approximately 30 reactors under construction. It is clear that the decline of the nuclear industry is advancing and will continue to accelerate as reactors are closed.

In a number of countries the phase out of nuclear power has begun. In particular in Western Europe where the Swedish Government confirmed and began implementation of its phase out plan and in the Netherlands, where one reactor was permanently closed in March 1997 and the last one will be shut down in 2003. Even in France, state utility officials declared that the nuclear stake in the national electricity production will decrease from 2010 onwards.

AMERICAS

In the United States, it has been 19 years since a nuclear reactor has been ordered, and 24 years since one was ordered and not subsequently cancelled. Indeed, over the past 30 years, a total of 123 nuclear plants were cancelled by utilities, representing 135,000 megawatts (MW) of generating capacity--well above the country's total current nuclear capacity (109 reactors and 99,000 MW).

It is now over 20 years since a reactor was ordered in Canada. In 1990, Ontario Hydro had plans to construct ten more reactors by 2014, but these plans have been cancelled. One reactor was shut down in 1995.

There are only five nuclear reactors operating in Latin America, two in Argentina, two in Mexico and one in Brazil. Argentina and Brazil both have one reactor under construction. The nuclear reactors in Latin America have all suffered severe technical problems and do not supply significant quantities of electricity to the grid.

In 1992, Cuba postponed the completion of two partially constructed Soviet-designed reactors, however, it is now reported that the Russian Government intends to give financial assistance for their completion.

WESTERN EUROPE

In 1957 the promotion of nuclear energy in Europe was considered to be so important that a European Atomic Energy Community (EURATOM), was created. Portugal, Ireland, Luxembourg, Denmark, Italy, Greece and Austria do not operate any commercial nuclear reactors. Today, in the European Union, 14 out of the 15 Member States, either do not have any nuclear reactors, intend to phase out nuclear power, or have no plans to build new reactors in the foreseeable future.

In March 1996, the Swedish ruling Social Democratic party voted to begin the phase-out of nuclear power. In January 1997, the decision was confirmed with a closure date of July 1998 for the first unit of the Barseback nuclear power plant.

After a Review on the privatisation of the British nuclear power industry, it was deemed that there was no economic justification for public funding to build any new reactors. In December 1995, British Energy announced the cancellation of the two proposed stations. In March 1997, the Environment Minister turned down a planning application to build an underground laboratory for investigating the disposal of low and intermediate level radioactive waste. The programme had already cost £250 million

In Finland, in September 1993, the Parliament voted against the government proposal for a fifth reactor. While in Spain, in April 1991, the government confirmed the 1983 moratorium on nuclear construction. In January 1995, a new law definitively cancelled the five reactors, which were 'mothballed' since the moratorium.

The Dodewaard nuclear power plant in the Netherlands was closed in March 1997, while the Dutch government decided after a parliamentary debate in December 1994 to only approve the operating life of the Borssele reactor until 2003.

After the unification of Germany, old reactors in the former Eastern Germany were closed almost immediately due to safety concerns. In addition, the part built Soviet designed reactors at Greifswald and Stendal were evaluated to assess the technical and economic viability of bringing the reactors up to West German safety standards. Following detailed analysis the part built reactors were abandoned. Public protests against radioactive waste transports and repositories have strengthened the general anti-nuclear sentiment amongst the German public. The Energy Consensus talks between the industry, the Federal Government and the SPD-Opposition were broken off in the summer of 1995 without an agreement on new reactor orders. In March 1997, over 10,000 people demonstrated against the dumping of radioactive waste at Gorleben.

In Belgium, where 7 reactors account for about 55% of the electricity, a special Senate's Commission concluded in 1991 that no new reactors should be built in an area closer than 30 km from the nearest population centre. In this small and densely populated country, such a place simply does not exist. In December 1995, the Belgian electricity utilities presented their new 1995-2005 equipment plan. Although the plan does not foresee new plant orders in the next ten years, it has been broadly criticised for its lack of an effective phase out policy.

There are currently five reactors operating in Switzerland. After a Referendum in 1990, the Swiss adopted a moratorium on the construction of new reactors at least until the year 2000. In March 1997 a study commissioned by the Swiss electricity producers was released which concluded that it would be possible for Switzerland to withdraw from nuclear power generation by 2030.

France remains the only country within Western Europe to have any reactors under construction, however, with only 2 reactors presently being built it now has the smallest construction programme since the early 1970s. 1996 was the first year that the French reactor construction company Framatome, had no new reactors planned. The newest national study of comparative generation costs of the French Ministry Of Industry for 1997 showed clearly nuclear is not the cheapest source for new electricity generation in France.

Problems continue to plague the European Pressurised Water Reactors (EPR), a joint Franco-German project, which is supposed to be designing the next generation of reactors to be ordered in Western Europe. However, it is reported that with uncertainties surrounding the location and time-scale for construction, electricity utilities are not prepared to proceed with detailed design plans.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND THE COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES

In October 1995, one unit of the Metzamor nuclear power plant in Armenia was restarted. Both reactors at the station were closed in 1988 due to public opposition, and had not operated at all since that time. Over the past years Armenia has suffered massive energy shortages due to lack of investment and an energy blockade in its 7-year war with neighbouring Azerbaijan. However, western firms are keen to do business even in Armenia and the French firm Framatome, is building a dry store for spent nuclear fuel, at a cost of $7.8 million at the site.

In October 1995, Bulgarian authorities restarted reactor number one at it's Kozloduy nuclear power plant despite objections from western governments, the European Commission and western European safety organisations. As a result, one of the main western contractors at the site, Electricite de France, threatened to withdraw it's personnel from the site. The Bulgarian nuclear authorities are now proposing to upgrade units 5 and 6 at Kozloduy, with Siemens, Framatome, Westinghouse and Minatom sharing the contract. In addition, there is continual talk of completing the part built reactors at Belene. However, it is unclear whether the nuclear sector can fund these projects.

Despite the signing of an agreement to fund the completion of two reactors at the Temelin nuclear power station in March 1994 in the Czech Republic the time-table continues to slip and the cost continues to increase for completing the reactors. The latest official figures available show that unit 1 will not be completed until April 1999, three years later than planned and $400 million over budget, independent experts suspect that the project will suffer further delays.

In Hungary, the inhabitants of the village of Nemetker, near the Paks nuclear power plant voted in February 1996, against the construction of a radioactive waste storage facility. According to the British Broadcast Corporation, 1041 of the 1492 people eligible to vote in the referendum made it to the polls, with only 427 in favour of the project.

The Ignalina RBMK reactors in Lithuania, continue to cause international concern. In March 1997, an international group of experts concluded that neither of the two nuclear reactors at the site should be restarted after this years maintenance outage until $US 120 million in safety improvements had been installed.

In Romania, the countries first nuclear reactor was started up in May 1996. The reactor took 16 years to complete and is supposed to be one of five reactors at Cernavoda. However, it is reported that to date the project has cost $10 billion and that there is insufficient funds to complete even the second unit.

In Russia, plans by the Ministry of Atomic Energy (MinAtom) to complete reactors are plagued by lack of funding and public opposition. For example, one reactor at Rostov in the south of Russia is reportedly 90% complete but cannot be finished and started up due to local political and public resistance, and MinAtom is also awaiting European Union funds to be allocated to the plant.

Furthermore, in the first ever regional referendum on nuclear power in December 1996, nearly 90% of the people who voted, opposed the restarting of construction of the Kostroma nuclear power plant. It is envisaged that this referendum will be followed by others in Russia and may eventually halt all new construction.

In December 1994, a public participation process began to evaluate the technical, economic and public viability of the completion of the first two units at the Mochovce Nuclear power plant in Slovakia. The reactor completion, to be undertaken using French, German, Russian, Czech and Slovakian technology, to be funded by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), the European Commission and French and Germany government credit agencies, would have been the first western European completion of Soviet-designed reactors. The project was opposed across Europe, especially in the neighbouring State of Austria, where over 1 million people, from a population of 7 million, signed a petition against the reactors. In addition, the European Parliament passed two emergency resolutions critical of the project. As a result of the unprecedented opposition, Bayernwerke withdrew from the project and in March 1995, following the completion of the public participation project, the Slovakian government requested that the project be suspended by the Bank.

The utility still wants to complete the project and is preparing a package with involvement from Russia's Minatom, Czech banks and companies as well as Siemens and Framatome as well as national firms and Banks. However, the future of Mochovce is still far from secure.

During 1996, there was a failed effort to close the Krsko NPP in Slovenia in the next ten years. This referendum drive did not get enough signatures to qualify in part due to the burdensome registration process. Slovene polls indicated that a majority of the population wished to close the single reactor many years before its design life.

In Ukraine, the operation of unit 3 at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant continues to receive international attention. In December 1995, a "Memorandum of Understanding" between the Ukrainian government and the governments of the G7 and EU countries was signed. This memorandum seeks the closure of Chernobyl by the year 2000 and outlines an international assistance programme, totalling US$3.1 billion. The largest project within this package is for the completion of two reactors, at Khmelnitsky and Rovno. The EBRD estimate that this completion will cost approximately $1.2 Billion. In February 1997, an independent Panel appointed by the EBRD to review the cost of completion of the two reactors concluded that it was not economic to continue the project and that other investments should be prioritised.

In November 1996, the first reactor at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant was permanently closed.

ASIA

In East Asia, Japan, South Korea, China, and Taiwan have plans to expand their nuclear power programmes. However, in South Korea it is estimated that completion costs for the five reactors currently under construction could be almost double that of some of the country's older reactors. In addition, public opposition to nuclear power and particularly radioactive waste dump sites in South Korea is continuing to increase.

In Taiwan, disputes over how to deal with the radioactive waste from the country's six nuclear plants continues to plague the industry. While plans for two new reactors have been delayed due to public and Parliamentary opposition and escalating costs.

At the end of 1996, Japan had 51 operating nuclear reactors with a further 3 under construction. The official long- term energy supply and demand outlook published by the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) in 1992, was for the construction of 40 more nuclear reactors. However, it has recently become obvious that this `official plan' is quite unrealistic.

In March 1997, Japan experienced its worst nuclear accident to date. A fire and subsequent explosion at the Tokai reprocessing plant caused contamination to over 30 workers at the facility and registered at Level 3 on the international accident scale. (The levels range from 0-7, with 7 being the most severe). This was in addition to the December 1995 accident at the Monju Fast Breeder reactor when the Japanese nuclear industry experienced a massive public loss of confidence after attempting to cover up the full extent of the damage. These accidents have added to increasing public opposition to nuclear facilities in the country.

Additionally, new measures to de-regulate the electricity market which came into effect on January 1st 1996, have made the outlook for nuclear power in Japan even worse. The biggest change was that utilities could no longer charge a standard 8% premium to ensure their `investment return'; in future the price of electricity sold to the consumer will be regulated, and generators will only make a profit according to how low they can push their own costs. This will inevitably reveal the cost disadvantages of nuclear power. Three of the biggest Japanese suppliers of Nuclear equipment were all reported to be planning to "significantly downsize" their nuclear related divisions during 1996.

During 1997 it was announced that the cost of the Rokkasho reprocessing plant, which originally was estimated to cost approximately $US 7.6 billion has now risen to $US 18 billion, with the plant not expected to be finished until 2003, three years later than planned.

Western governments, led by the United States, have promised North Korea as much as $400 million worth of fuel oil and two large western-style reactors, in exchange for a pledge to curtail nuclear weapons development.

India is in the process of constructing five new reactors. In 1993 India's nine operating reactors had a capacity factor of only 39 percent in 1993, far below the 60-80 percent average of most countries. Meanwhile, a 130-ton concrete slab of the containment dome collapsed at a reactor under construction at Kaiga in 1994, increasing uncertainties about the safety of India's nuclear reactors.

In March 1997, the Indonesian government announced that its plans for nuclear power had been shelved indefinitely. This is despite continual pressure by foreign nuclear companies over the last decade, including Mitsubishi, Westinghouse and AECL (Canada) who have been actively promoting nuclear power. While in the Philippines, the Westinghouse corporation final finished paying the cash component of the $US 100 million settlement with the Government for the construction of the Bataan nuclear power station. The plant, abandoned in 1985, was never started up because of concerns that it was defective.

CONCLUSION

In the past two decades there has been a steady decline in the fortunes of the nuclear industry around the world. The decline started in the United States in the 1970's and resulted in the cancellation of over 120 nuclear power plants. Subsequently, we have seen the cancelling of nuclear power programmes and reactors around the world. Today, in Western Europe only France has any reactors under construction, while in Central and Eastern Europe only a handful of reactors are being built. Even in Asia, which is often touted as the next region of the world to build large numbers of nuclear power plants, reactor programmes are being slimmed down and cancelled.

In the next decade this downward trend is likely to continue, and as the true economic and environmental costs of decommissioning and radioactive waste management come to light it could even accelerate more rapidly.

The nuclear industry has had almost 50 years to prove that nuclear technology is safe, clean and cheap and has failed to do so. Far from producing electricity that is "too cheap to meter", the environmental and economic costs of nuclear power are now too huge to measure. Now is not the time for further government subsidy to develop a new series of nuclear reactors. As we approach the 21st century, renewable energy sources have clear environmental and economic advantages over nuclear power. The time has come to stop all further developments in the nuclear industry and to start to implement a new Solar Age.