Summary

The planet's weather system, and the entire web of life based on it, face potentially massive long term disruption from climate change. Fossil fuels, such as coal and oil, are the main sources of the polluting gases, identified as "greenhouse gases". A clear political commitment is urgently required to shift global energy dependence from polluting fossil fuels to abundant clean, renewable energy sources such as solar power. As a first step, industrialised countries should commit themselves at the "Climate Summit" to be held in Kyoto, Japan in December 1997, to legally binding obligations to reduce their CO2 emissions 20% below 1990 levels by the year 2005.

Problem Statement

It is well established that emissions of certain gases from such things as the burning of fossil fuels can cause climate change, in a process known as the "enhanced greenhouse effect". The major "greenhouse gases" are carbon dioxide, ozone, methane, nitrous oxide, water vapor and CFCs. In the atmosphere they form a barrier that holds in heat thereby warming the earth. Historic levels of these gases have maintained a climate system that supports life and gives us the familiar weather patterns and seasons. Now the web of life, and social and economic systems face potentially massive disruption from the steady build-up of these gases in the atmosphere. Levels of carbon dioxide, from burning of coal, oil and gas, and from deforestation, have increased around 30% since industrialisation and contribute around 70% of the enhanced greenhouse effect to date. Scientists predict that if no action is taken, ecosystems and economies worldwide are at risk.

A rise of even a degree or two in average temperatures worldwide may be catastrophic for some human societies living close to sea-level and to some coastal and mountain ecosystems. Warming oceans and melting glaciers will cause sea levels to rise, flooding coasts and islands. Croplands may suffer from droughts, deserts may spread. Animals and plants may not survive the change in their local environment. Even a small temperature rise may cause forest dieback and melt the permafrost in the Arctic, releasing even more greenhouse gases.

Key Facts

In 1995, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which involved over 2500 of the world's leading climate experts, concluded that the earth already shows signs of warming:

>Average global temperature has increased between 0.3-0.5 C in 140 years since records began;

1980s was the hottest decade on record; 1990s is shaping up to be even hotter;

Mountain glaciers are in rapid retreat; tundra permafrost is dramatically warming.

Other changes consistent with a warming world include:

Mean sea level has risen by 10 to 25 cm

A startling 2.5 C warming in the Antarctic Peninsula since 1940 has been associated with disintegrating ice shelves, retreat of sea ice and declining penguin populations

An upward migration of alpine plants in the Austrian and Swiss Alps, and a northward migration of trees and small animals in Canada and of marine organisms in California

Reports of dengue-fever-carrying mosquitoes, formerly restricted to lower than 1000 metres altitude by temperature, at 2,200 metres in India and Colombia.

Changes such as these can be expected to become more common and more dangerous as atmospheric CO2 levels increase. And once CO2 is put in the atmosphere the warming will be felt many decades in the future and cannot be easily reversed.

The Carbon Logic

The objective of the Framework on Climate Change signed at Rio in 1992 is: "stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic [human made] interference with the climate system" and "Such a level should be achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner".

In 1990, the United Nations Environment Programme Advisory Group on Greenhouse Gases identified the following "targets and indicators" necessary to "protect both ecosystems as well as human systems":

Sea level rise: maximum rate of rise 20 - 50mm per decade; maximum 0.2 - 0.5 metres above 1990 global mean sea level;

Global mean temperature: maximum rate of 0.1.C per decade; maximum increase of 1.0.C. Above 1.0C there may be "rapid, unpredictable and non-linear responses that could lead to extensive ecosystem damage". A total 2.0C increase was "viewed as an upper limit beyond which the risks of grave damage to ecosystems, and of non-linear responses, are expected to increase rapidly".

In order to meet both the total and per decade target limits, a limit of 150 Gtc (gigatonnes of carbon in CO2) can be loaded into the atmosphere, assuming no action is taken to stop current trends of deforestation (as forests act as a "sink" for some carbon, and release it when destroyed); with an active afforestation programme, 260GtC may be tolerated. Burning all known and "economically recoverable" reserves of oil, gas and coal over the next century would release over one billion tonnes of carbon into the atmosphere and could lead to a long term rise of 4.5C in global temperatures.

Solutions

The inescapable conclusion, and Greenpeace's immediate call for action, is that fossil fuels must be phased out - even known reserves and resources can never all be burned. Fossil (and nuclear) fuels must be replaced with ecologically sustainable renewable solutions - solar energy systems, wind turbines, bio-fuel plantations, energy efficiency and energy conservation. The "Solar Revolution" is technically and economically achievable. With rapid changes in government and industry policies, renewables could be providing 60% of global energy needs by 2030. According to the European Commission providing solar electricity to a billion people in the developing world would cost $60 billion ($3 billion/year for 20 years) - to put this into perspective, this is only 3% of annual energy investments in developing countries and less than 0.5% of current military expenditure.

Such a global phase out will require:

Cessation of construction of fossil-based (and nuclear) power stations and new oil exploration

Transferral of subsidies from fossils (and nuclear) to renewable technologies

Conversion of current energy generating systems to renewable technologies in industrialised nations at a minimum rate of 3% per year

A shift in World Bank energy policy for developing countries from fossil and nuclear systems to renewables

Increased investment in energy efficiency and advanced renewable power systems (which often can be achieved at competitive cost).

As a first step Greenpeace advocates that at the Third Conference of the Parties of the Framework Convention on Climate Change in Kyoto in December 1997, all industrialized nations be required to reduce CO2 emissions 20% on 1990 levels by 2005. Industrialised nations produce 65% of the world's carbon dioxide emissions from fossil use and thus have the lion's share of responsibility for finding the solutions. With less than 5% of the world's population, the US is responsible for about 25% of global fossil fuel CO2 emissions, annually pumping out 20 tons of CO2 per person. In comparison, the entire developing world, consisting of more than 100 countries and representing almost 80% of the world's population, is responsible for around 35% of CO2 emissions.

Supporting Documents

Putting a Lid on Fossil Fuels: Why the Atlantic should be a frontier against oil exploration - Greenpeace, May 1997

Governments: Puppets of Industry? - Greenpeace, May 1997

Plugging into the Sun: Kickstarting the Solar Age in Crete - Greenpeace, April 1997

UNEP Climate Change Fact Sheets

IPCC

Contacts

Greenpeace International
Martina Krueger, tel: 31.20.523.6222, fax: 31.20.523.6200, e-mail:martina.krueger@ams.greenpeace.org
Lyn Goldsworthy, tel: 31.20.523.6222, fax: 31.20.523.6200, e-mail: lyn.goldsworthy@dialb.greenpeace.org

Political and Scientific Information, Greenpeace International
Bill Hare, tel: 31.20.523.6211, fax: 31.20.523.6200, e-mail: bill.hare@ams.greenpeace.org