The following are quotes from two scientific papers..

1:* Rott et al Rapid: collapse of Northern Larsen Ice Shelf, Antarctica. Science Vol 271 ( February 1996)

2: * Vaughan and Doake: Recent atmospheric warming and retreat of ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula. Nature

1: " An ice shelf is thought to be able to survive small temporary perturbations of the mass balance, but not large prolonged ones. "

"Increased surface melt in recent summers, and possibly also increased basal melt, were certainly important factors in the accelerated retreat. ... Fast retreat and final disintegration of the northernmost sections of the LIS (Larsen Ice shelf) took place during a period of warm summers, which began during 1986-1987 and included the two warmest summers recorded at Marambio Station: The mean temperatures were +0.2 degreesC during summer 1992-1993 and +0.6 degreesC during summer 1994-1995, compared to a mean of -2.0degrees C for the 24 year record. ... The retreat of the northern LIS, in accordance with the retreat of the ice shelvs at the west coast of the Antarctic Peninsula and of the tide-water glaciers of James Ross Island, is another indicator of changes in regional climate."

"... observations suggest that ice shelves close to the climatic limit for existence may disintegrate rapidly. During the next years, increased attention should be paid to the section of the LIS south of Seal Nunataks, which may be subject to major changes if the warming continues..."

2: "In 1978 Mercer discussed the probable effects of climate warming on the Antarctic Ice Sheet, predicting that one sign of a warming trend in this region would be the retreat of ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula. Analyses of 50-year meteorological records have since revealed atmospheric warming on the Antarctic Peninsula, and a number of ice shelves have retreated. "

" Climatic forcing may not need to be very strong to produce ice-shelf retreat. ..."

"Given continued warming, Larsen B will probably continue to retreat and eventually Larsen C may well behave in a similar way..."

"We have still, however, to determine the precise mechanisms whereby the atmospheric warming had such a catastrophic effect on the ice shelves of the Antarctic Peninsula but it is clear that ice shelves cannot survive periods of warming that last more than a few decades.

We cannot determine whether the Antarctic Peninsula warming can be ascribed to a global warming magnified by regional temperature/sea-ice feedback, or if this is a natural oscillation as a result of the same feedback. We offer no prediction that the warming will continue, but if it does, other ice shelves are threatened. The Filchner-Ronne and Ross Ice shelves, which may stabilize the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, are not immediately threatened by this mechanism, as it would require a further warming of 10 degrees C before the -5degrees mean annual isotherm reached their ice fronts"