Greenpeace Update on CTBT Negotiations
from the Conference on Disarmament

12th August 1996

Summary

Work is proceeding slowly on drafting the report of the ad hoc Committee on the Nuclear Test Ban to the Conference on Disarmament and finalising the draft text of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty text.

On Monday Ambassador Ramaker presented the ad hoc Committee with a summary, for inclusion in the report, of his statement of last Friday informing the Committee on his informal consultations and the conclusions he had drawn (see below).

The Chairman also presented delegates with three pages of - - mainly minor -- modifications to the text of draft treaty. The only notable change to the text, as expected, is the inclusion of the specific change to the voting requirement for decisions in the Executive Committee, from a simple majority vote to a minimum of thirty votes as insisted by China and agreed last week (see below).

Uncertainty continues to reign over if and when a veto might be used to block adoption of the treaty, with Iran also now indicating to reporters that, unless its concerns were met (the Preamble, the use of NTM's, and the inclusion of Israel in the Middle East region for seats on the Executive Council), it could not allow the text of the treaty to go further and that it might veto. India continues to insist that it cannot sign the treaty as it stands and that a veto is possible unless the text is changed further to accommodate its concerns (entry-into-force).

This situation is further complicated by the repercussions of the decision by and willingness of delegations -- especially the Nuclear Weapon States -- to include the change to the text of the treaty as insisted by China, while maintaining their insistence that no further changes are possible at all to accommodate other concerns, especially those of India.

While the stated goal -- and oft cited final deadline for completion and forwarding the text to New York -- is by the end of this week, there was some speculation on Monday that the final decision on the fate of the treaty within the Conference might not come until next week.

Away from the Conference itself: on Wednesday the Australian government's Canberra Commission will issue its report on the elimination of nuclear weapons; the United Kingdom's defence minister - Malcom Rifkind - will visit India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Japan; the US Secretary of State will visit Geneva beginning Tuesday evening (although it is unclear if he will be involved in the CTBT discussions); and French Foreign Minister - Herve de Charette - has written to his counterparts in Cuba, Sri Lanka, Egypt, Mexico, Kenya and Indonesia urging their support for the draft treaty.

Future Programme of Work

On Tuesday afternoon, the ad hoc Committee will meet again, and is expected to hear statements of national positions for inclusion in the report of the Committee also. There is also the possibility of a further ad hoc Committee meeting on Wednesday, prior to the next scheduled Plenary of the Conference on Thursday morning.

Procedurally, there is uncertainty as to whether or not it will be possible to adopt the report of the ad hoc Committee and have the final decision taken by the Plenary of the Conference - - both steps require consensus. Although it is hoped that countries will not veto the decision at either stage, it is considered preferable by some that -- if a veto must come -- it should be in the public Plenary of the Conference itself, rather than in the closed-door Committee meetings.

It may be possible to adopt the report of the Committee by including the Chairman's comments and critical National statements in the report AND by formulating the report in such a way as to NOT have the Committee give explicit support or endorsement to the treaty itself. Another possibility may exist for getting a report containing the text to the Plenary of the Conference itself in the event that it cannot be adopted by consensus in the Committee, whereby the Chairman reports himself directly to the President of the Conference.

Finally, in the event of a veto being used in either the Committee or the Conference, it still appears to be likely that a country or group of countries will take the text directly to the United Nations General Assembly. However the limitations and potential problems with this approach are being increasingly realized.

Report of the ad hoc Committee

The Chairman's statement of Friday is largely reproduced for inclusion in the draft report of the ad hoc Committee. The main elements of the statement are:

• there was a general realisation of the time constraints for concluding work on the CTBT if it is to be signed by the outset of the fifty-first session of the United Nations General Assembly;
• a confirmation that continued negotiations would not be likely to lead to further improvements and, if they continued, the treaty almost certainly would not be ready on time for signature;
• support for or acceptance of the draft treaty had being expressed - while there were concerns on different aspects of the text the margins for changing it were widely recognized to be extremely small;
• the main areas of concern identified were: the issue of nuclear disarmament and the Preamble; the composition of the Executive Council; entry-into-force; and some aspects of verification;
• the Chairman concluded it was possible to amend the text on the issue of the voting requirement for decisions by the Executive Council from a simple majority to at least 30 votes (as insisted by China);
• the Chairman concluded it was NOT possible to change the text to take into account the concerns over nuclear disarmament and the Preamble; and the composition of the Executive Council;
• on the issue of entry-into-force, while not explicitly rejecting the possibility of changing the text, the Chairman stated that his "consultations had not produced any indication on how to move the Treaty further towards convergence on this issue". The Chairman also stressed that, on the basis of his consultations, he was "of the firm conviction" that the EIF provisions did not impinge on sovereignty or impose any legally-binding obligations on a State not Party to the Treaty even if that State's ratification was a pre- requisite for entry-into-force of the treaty. He also expressed his "understanding" that (in referring to 'measures' that might be taken in the situation that the treaty did not come into force three years after being opened for signature) the EIF article was not referring to certain UN Security Council measures (i.e. sanctions);
• on the issues related to verification, the Chairman "recalled" that there were a number of safeguards, including procedures to be followed by the Executive Council, to prevent abuse and that submission of any abusive or frivolous on-site inspection would account to a violation of a State Party's rights under the Treaty;
• finally, the Chairman expressed his view that "under the present circumstances" the current text was the "best attainable outcome".

Modifications to the Treaty Text

The three pages of modifications (n.b. this is the word used in the title of the Chairman's paper) to the text of the draft CTBT are primarily 'technical' in nature -- that is they largely involve harmonisation of language and usage, grammatical and spelling corrections, and corrections to the co-ordinates of stations in the international monitoring system (IMS).

The one exception is the modification to replace "a majority of all" by "at least thirty affirmative votes of" in the section concerning decisions of the Executive Council, in order to implement the agreement reached last week with China in order to accommodate its concerns about decisions on On-Site Inspection (OSI).

No modifications were proposed by the Chairman to the text on the question of the use and control of National Technical Means of verification (NTMs) indicating that, as widely expected, any agreement reached with or assurances received by China on this issue remain in a 'side-bar' agreement.

Simon Carroll monitors the CTBT negotiations in Geneva for Greenpeace and may be contacted at:

Hotel des Nations -- phone +41 (22) 734.30.03, Room 303, fax: +41 (22) 734.38.84.

Mobile phone: +41 (77) 68.33.74.