Big night for the political team. They've divided the watch, as if we were on a ship threatened by pirates. And indeed, it will be a night of long knives as the ministers and their aides work to hammer out as much as possible before the Honchos arrive tomorrow. Rumour has it Blair is going on Safari. Don't want to bother the boss with details, do we?
The Kyoto language has been finalized, and it's a measure of our shortening expectations that we're almost counting it a victory that the summit won't gut the Climate agreement. They've agreed language which says "States which have ratified urge States which have not done so to do so." Hello, George Bush. Hello, Australia, hello Canada. Your pals are sending you a message there, so listen real hard.
Our biggest worry right now is renewables targets. The German chancellor, hammered by concerns from his countrymen about recent floods, was making good noises in Germany about targets. Will he put action behind his words? Chirac arrives tomorrow. Will he have the guts to challenge the US on climate issues? And what about Denmark, currently enjoying the chairmanship of the EU but failing to show the guts or the leadership the job requires.
Some of the draft renewables agreements are widening their definition of renewables. For example, aiming for 10% of primary electricty to be generated by renewables is a good thing. But if the definition of renewables includes large scale hydro and that's a regional target for, e.g., Latin America, then governments could conceivably REDUCE the percentage of their power generated by renewables and still meet the target. Now that's progress.
And the much-lauded Fisheries agreement???? Our experts pointed out that the Summit tood a legally binding set of requirements set out in the Law of the Sea Treaty in 82 and reduced them to "voluntary" aims. Fisheries protection just got rolled back 30 years. On the positive side, the delegates agreed to end subsidies for illegal fishing. Bold, eh?
What the delegates need to know is that they are NOT going to be able to spin a bunch of empty agreements as progress. There are just too many sharp cookies around here to have the wool pulled over their eyes.
More news tomorrow. Today's march has bouyed many of us up, but the prospect from the meeting hall is looking dim.
--b
Posted by brian at August 31, 2002 08:10 PM