IF we don't mind additional impacts from exposure to ultraviolet radiation (we do)

Let's assume that the Protocol will overcome its many shortcomings, and that sometime in the middle of the next century the ozone layer will fully recover. Even with this assumption, we are still facing years of increasing impacts from exposure to ultraviolet radiation.

There is a direct correlation between increases in the amount of industrial chlorine and bromine in the atmosphere, increases in stratospheric ozone depletion, increases in the amount of UV-B radiation reaching the earth and increased damage to human health and other life forms . Given this equation, one wonders why the Parties to the Protocol continue to sanction the production of ozone depleting chemicals.

These alarming impacts are highlighted in numerous reports, including the 1994 UNEP Assessment of the Environmental Effects of Ozone Depletion". They include:

• Skin cancer rate on the rise: Between 1979 and 1993, the incidence of non-melanoma, the most common form of skin cancer, is already believed to have risen an average of 10% in the Northern Hemisphere, between the latitudes 55N and 35N. Even larger increases are believed to have occurred in the Southern Hemisphere. UNEP forecasts that a sustained 1% decrease in stratospheric ozone will result in a 2% increase of this type of skin cancer.

  In 1994, UNEP confirmed that increases in UV-B radiation are likely to increase "the incidence and morbidity from skin cancer" and that "epidemiological data indicate that the risk of melanoma increases with sunlight exposure, especially during childhood." (1994 Science, Environmental Effects and Technology and Economic Assessments, Synthesis Report/ page 13)

  

• Human immune system at risk: Exposure to UV-B is now known to lower the effectiveness of the human immune system. There is mounting evidence that UV-B has the ability to activate latent viruses such as papilloma viruses, herpes, and perhaps HIV. UNEP suggests that UV-B exposure might adversely influence immunity to infectious diseases, such as leishmaniasis, and malaria.. UV-B exposure also may reduce immunization rates, exacerbate photosensitivity disease such as lupus, and cause medication reactions in individuals taking the birth control pill and certain antidepressants and antibiotics. [Dr. K.D. Cooper, University of Michigan at Ann Arbor] As well, excessive UV-B radiation can trigger herpes simplex virus infections of the oral cavity (UNEP, Environmental Effects of Ozone Depletion, 1991]

  

• Increased incidence of eye cataracts: In November, 1991 UNEP projected that the effects of increased UV-B radiation will result in substantial increases in cataract (the clouding of the eyes lens) cases and blindness worldwide. Latest finding indicate that each 1% decrease in ozone levels leads to 0.6% to 0.8% increase in cataracts. The World Health Organization estimates that a 10 percent reduction in the ozone layer will result in two million new cases of cataracts per year.

  

• Fish stock at risk: 16% ozone depletion could result in 5% loss in phytoplankton (the basis of all food in the seas), which would lead to a loss of about 7 million tonnes of fish per year -about 7% of fishery yield. Under the Antarctic ozone hole productivity from phytoplankton was down by 6-12%.

  

• Damage to plants: UV-B radiation can alter plant form, damage tree and plant growth, change the time of flowering, make plants more vulnerable to disease and cause them to produce toxic substances. There may well be losses of biodiversity and plant species, but our ignorance of the effects of UV-B on ecosystems as a whole is far too great to allow figures to be put on these losses.

  

• Air pollution: With loss of ozone in the upper atmosphere, it is expected that UV-B radiation will cause ground-level ozone to increase in urban and suburban areas, reaching potentially harmful concentrations earlier in the day.

Scientific research into the impact of increased UV-B radiation upon the biosphere is tragically under funded. The UNEP Scientific Committee On Problems of the Environment (SCOPE) forewords its 1993 report "Effects of Increased Ultraviolet Radiation on Global Ecosystems" with the following forthright admonition: "The fact that the number of experts on the effects of increased UV-B impacts on living systems due to ozone depletion continues to be rather small, illustrates that for the past 20 years, the governments of the world seemed not to take seriously this potential threat to the biosphere. Candidly stated, research funding for "effects" research has been paltry at best."