Atmospheric chlorine loading has steadily risen from 1.5 ppb in 1970 to 2.5
ppb in 1980 to 3.6 ppb today. (1991 & 1994 Synthesis Report). If all the
assumptions underlying the Protocol turn out to be valid ones, it is expected
that chlorine loading will peak at 3.8 parts per billion around the turn of the
century. If one or all of these assumptions are wrong, ozone depletion will
get much worse, for much longer.
The logical goal should be to reverse this trend as quickly as possible and to
allow the ozone layer to restore itself to pre- industrial levels.
Unfortunately, the Montreal Protocol does not seem aimed at this goal.
The shortest route to reducing the atmospheric levels of chlorine and
bromine, hence reducing the amount of ozone depletion and the risk of adverse
health and environmental impacts from ultraviolet radiation is the immediate
elimination of the production and use of ozone destroying compounds. And yet,
the majority of the proposals currently on the table at the Montreal Protocol
would actually extend global use of ozone depleting chemicals.
It is the moral obligation of governments to protect the public, and the
environment, from undue harm. Clearly, it is their responsibility to help
speed up the recovery of the ozone layer if they have the means to do so--which
they do. We now have the know-how to replace all ozone depleting substances
with environmentally safer technologies. All we are lacking is the political
will.
