With these words, countries of the world took an historic step. Ozone depletion had been recognized as the world's first truly global environmental problem. As such, the preservation of the ozone layer - and the life on earth that depends on it- would require the unprecedented cooperation of nations for their common good. Self interest, and self preservation were redefined as synonymous with global interests, and nations of the world were forced to see themselves more clearly than ever before as a common community. Ten years later much progress has been made, but the final outcome is still unclear. In 1987 the largely toothless Vienna Convention became the Montreal Protocol, which has served as the mechanism to encourage and enforce global phaseout of ozone depleting substances. Amended several times since 1987, the Protocol has been widely hailed as the solution to the ozone crisis. On the paper of the Montreal Protocol, the world is safe.

"Under the current CFC phaseout schedules, global UV levels
are predicted to peak around the turn of the century...The recovery
to pre-ozone depletion levels is expected to take place gradually
over the next 50 years"
- UNEP Scientific Assessment, 1994, p.iv

In practice though, the ozone layer and the planet are still in grave danger. The truth is that the Montreal Protocol, as it is currently constructed, will not save the ozone layer. The success of the Protocol depends, as this paper shows, on a series of assumptions, or "IFS", that are questionable at best, and demonstratably unrealistic at worst.

Briefly stated, the Montreal Protocol has saved the ozone layer;

• IF production of ozone destroying substances stops (it has not)
• IF Northern countries keep their promises (they're not)
• IF Southern countries operate in good faith (they're not)
• IF the North doesn't dump obsolete, polluting technology in the South (they are)
• IF the scientific predictions are right (they rarely have been)
• IF scientific sceptics don't undermine the Protocol (they are trying)
• IF we don't mind additional impacts from exposure to ultraviolet radiation (we do)

Far from being a "model international environmental agreement", the Montreal Protocol is in danger of failing in the only way that matters - the future health of the ozone layer. If any one of the above assumptions proves incorrect the effects on the environment and society will be enormous.