GREENPEACE AND CLEAN INDUSTRY UNVEIL GLOBAL WIND ENERGY PLAN TO POWER 500 MILLION HOUSEHOLDS

6 November 1998

Buenos Aires -- Close to a million megawatts (MW) of wind power can be installed worldwide within two decades, powering the equivalent of 500 million households (1) with renewable energy, according to an international study presented today by Greenpeace, the European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) and the Danish Forum for Energy and Development at the end of the first week of international climate negotiations in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

The study "10 per cent of the world's electricity consumption from wind energy. Is that target achievable?" by BTM Consult Aps, the leading authority on wind energy development concludes that:

· 844,000 MW of wind power can be installed worldwide by the year 2017.

· This would produce 10 % of global electricity, 2,071 Terrawatt hours (TWh) in 2017.

· Annual savings of 232 million tons of carbon dioxide in 2010, and 1.889 billion in 2020.

· This target can be achieved at the same cost as fossil fuel options and is based on current market trends.

The report states that "to realise the goal, governments need political will to support the development - not so much with money, but by establishing the institutional framework". This means a regulatory framework for access to the grid, fair payment and adherence to the Kyoto protocol. All three organisations called on Ministers, due to arrive next week, to ensure that the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), outlined in the Kyoto Protocol signed last December, promotes renewable energy technologies and excludes nuclear power or the misleading labelled "clean coal" (a term coined by industry to refer to a type of power station which burns coal more efficiently).

If climate negotiators agree to back renewable technology, the wind power plan could provide over 2071 billion kilowatt hours (2071 TWh) by 2017 or roughly the equivalent of the entire 1995 electricity consumption of Latin America, Asia, India and the Middle East.

"Clean energy is within governments' grasp; and is essential to prevent dangerous climate change. Failure to adopt obvious practical solutions like wind power would be against the spirit of the Kyoto protocol," said Corin Millais of Greenpeace International. "We need CO2 reductions in the atmosphere and not only on paper: Ministers arriving next week must support clean energy solutions, and not further climate destruction by backing the expansion of fossil fuels."

Global wind power installed in 1997 amounted to 7,600 MW and is expected to reach 9,500 MW by the end of this year reflecting global growth rates of 25 per cent and more. "In some countries wind energy growth rates exceed the expansion of the mobile phone market" said Christophe Bourillon, Chief Executive of the EWEA. "This industry is only 20 years old, developing a single coal power station sometimes takes longer than this. What makes wind power so attractive especially in the developing world is the combination of clean energy, cost efficiency and fast implementation which allows for maximum flexibility to changing energy needs".

'Today we are already approaching 10 per cent of wind power in Denmark and the official target for wind in Denmark is 50 % per cent of the electricity consumption by 2030" says Hans Bjerregard, Chairman of the Danish Forum for Energy and Development, who commissioned the study. "This report proves that we can replicate the success of the Danish model if governments will step up the promotion of renewable energies."

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT:
In Buenos Aires:
- Holger Roenitz, Greenpeace International (engl./german) on (+541) 806 5658/5852. Mobile - 423 8136,
- Natalia Truchi, Greenpeace Argentina, Tel mobile - 434 85 17,
- Horacio Brum, Greenpeace Chile, mobile - 429 4023

Visit Greenpeace International's Climate Campaign homepage:http://www.greenpeace.org/~climate/
Get a full copy of the report at BTM Consult Aps website:http://home4.inet.tele.dk/btmcwind/

Key points of the report:

Ten per cent of the world's electricity consumption from wind energy. Is that target achievable? A report by Birger Madsen, BTM Consult Aps.

November 6 1998. Presented by: - European Wind Energy Association Forum for Energy and Development and Greenpeace International

Current status and opportunities for expansion

'The trends in technological development and market development during the last five years gives an indication of what can be expected from wind energy some years ahead - given fair conditions in a often monopolised market.'

'It is generally accepted, and proved that the last 20 years of development of wind energy has demonstrated this technology as the most promising of all new renewables technologies.'

'In the short period of introduction of the new technology we have seen an industry which has shown excellent talent in meeting new market demands and rapid response to changes occurring in the markets from time to time.'

'The development in 1998 indicates that this capacity in a relatively fast pace can be extended. Particularly the globalisation characterised by establishment of joint ventures can expand the manufacturing capacity significantly.'

Current global windpower installed at the end of 1997 reached 7,600 Megawatts (MW). This is 35,000 turbines across the world producing 15.3 Terrawatt hours (TWh), about 0.11% of the world demand for electricity.

The estimate of the global wind resource is put at 53,000TWh, over 25 times the 10% target.

10% of the worlds' electricity from wind power by 2017

The scenario of 'international agreements' will create: -

· 10% of the world electricity consumption from wind power by 2017.

· This 10% is 844,000MW-installed worldwide, generating 2,071 TWh.

· This 10% is a total of 604,000 wind turbines installed by 2017.

· Annual saving of 232 million tonnes of carbon dioxide by 2010, 1,889 million by 2020 and 2,530 million tonnes of by 2025.

· Reduce costs of wind power to 2.7cents/kwh by 2025

· By 2010 represents 30% of the total Kyoto Protocol target (5.2% reduction by 2010).

· Is the equivalent of the current electricity consumption of approximately 500 million European households.

Costs:

'Today's electricity price from wind power is 5 cents/kWh and assuming a large scale development as estimated in the 10% scenarios, the price will be reduced to 3 cents/kWh.'

'The rough conclusion is that wind power is almost competitive to the major fossil fuel technologies today. Looking ahead, wind will drop below 4 US cents/kWh.'

Under the 10% scenarios, 'the CO2 abatement cost by use of wind power is zero' and that this is for 'wind energy substituting fossil produced electricity' 'External costs not yet reflected in market prices for electricity will further strengthen the competitiveness of wind power'

Conclusions on the scenarios:

'The realisation of the scenarios will not be restricted by the availability of wind resources, neither by magnitude of future electricity consumption'

'By comparison with other technological developments it is likely that the growth rates can be met through an expansion of today's industry. The industry has, in the early phase, demonstrated growth rates even higher than those required for to fulfil the penetration of the scenarios. But it is obvious that a strong globalisation and transfer of manufacturing competencies to the different regions has to be accomplished.'

'The crucial point of realisation of these scenarios is the political will to support the development - not so much with money, but by establishing the institutional framework facilitating the nature of the development.'

'Other barriers may be the established industries servicing the electricity sectors today by supplying fossil power technologies and fuels (coal/oil and gas).'

'For political decision-makers on the international level, the industry is one of the answers on solving the problems with increased CO2 emissions. Windpower technology is a technology ready for take off for a big growth, and its modularity makes its possible to gain benefits immediately.'

'Taking the expected price decline from the scenarios into account, it will never be more expensive than other options, it will rather be cheaper'.

10% world electricity from wind power - some comparisons

The achievement of 2,000 TWh by 2017 can be compared to countries' electricity consumption to give a sense of what represents; it is the approximate equivalent of:

· four times Germany's entire electricity consumption in 1995.

· two thirds of America's entire electricity consumption in 1995.

· the entire electricity consumption of Japan and China in 1995.

· the entire electricity consumption of Latin America, Asia, India and the Middle East in 1995.

Electricity consumption of various countries in 1995 (TWh):

OECD 7658

Asia 941

Latin America 518

Africa 342

Middle East 298

USA 3366

Japan 952

China 928

Russia 756

Germany 517

Canada 490

India 341

UK 325

Italy 261

Spain 155

Sweden 136

Netherlands 88

Belgium 75

Argentina 54

Austria 51

Greece 39

Denmark 33

10% of world's electricity from wind power by 2017 - 2071 TWh All figures from IEA Key World Energy Statistics