SCIENTISTS UP WARNINGS FOR A WARMING WORLD: PRESSURE ON GOVERNMENTS TO ACT

17 January 2001

Shanghai, China - Representatives from 150 governments begin a four day meeting today to review and agree on the latest, and starkest, global warming warnings from world renowned scientists. The reported increase in effects from greenhouse gas emissions throws a burning spotlight on governments’ failure to reach agreement at the United Nations Climate Change negotiations in The Hague, The Netherlands, last November.

Governmental representatives will meet to adopt the scientific assessment from the world’s top climate scientists, known as The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, established in 1988 by the United Nations. The new scienc assessment reportedly ups the predictions of the last report in 1995, almost doubling the top end of the temperature increase projected over the next 100 years to 6 degrees Celsius. Also the report projects more extreme events such as storms, floods and droughts as a consequence of increased emissions of greenhouse gases.

The main task of the governments meeting in Shanghai is to agree a scientific summary which is a critical input into the next round of climate treaty talks. In the past the wording of the summary has been bitterly fought over as some governments and industry groups, mainly oil companies such as Exxon, have sought to water down the scientific findings of the report. Industry representatives and OPEC delegates to the Shanghai meeting also have put forward changes that would substantially weaken and undermine the report.

"If governments fail to accept the clear scientific warnings, as they did in The Hague, then people will not be given the choice of safe, clean energy and a chance to protect themselves, and their world, against the onslaught of climate change," said Ho Wai Chi, Greenpeace China Executive Director.

Bill Hare, Climate Policy Director for Greenpeace International warned that this new scientific assessment shows substantially increased risks from global warming compared to the previous assessment in 1995. "The pressure is really on governments to act now and remedy the damage done at The Hague. At Shanghai they should strongly resist efforts by Exxon, the American Petroleum Institute and others to water down this report," said Hare.

While the science report, which is to be adopted by governments in Shanghai, is not yet fully finalised and has yet to be released, drafts have been leaked to various news organisations and provide a stark picture of a warming world. From published reports, it is clear that the science component of the Third Assessment Report finds that:

- it is now considerably clearer than at the time of the Second Assessment Report in 1995 that the addition of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere by humanity - the largest portion of which is the burning of fossil fuels - is changing the global climate;

- 20th century trends of increasing temperature, sea-level rise, and increased precipitation will continue and intensify in the 21st century;

- the anticipated increase in temperature over this century has increased from a range of 1 – 3.5° C in the Second Assessment Report, to 1.5 - 6°C.;

- the anticipated range of global sea level rise is now between 14 and 80 cm, with a mid-range estimate of about half a meter;

- there is likely to be an increase in extreme weather events such as heat waves, increased precipitation leading to floods, and higher minimum temperatures and fewer cold days;

- glaciers and polar ice are set to continue melting, and there will be a continued decrease in Northern Hemisphere snow and ice cover;

- climate change will persist for many centuries, due to the long life of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the long time required for transfer of heat from the atmosphere to the deep oceans; even with quick action to curtail emissions, the effects of our current activity will be felt for hundreds of years; and

- while it is not expected to happen in this century, current rates of increase in greenhouse gas emissions may commit us to the eventual melting of the Greenland ice cap and/or the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, either of which could add around six meters to global sea level, with catastrophic effects.

The meeting of climate scientists and governments in Shanghai assumes a greater urgency in light of the recent failure of the Climate Treaty negotiations in The Hague. With the scientific projections of the effects of climate change worsening the time is well past governments to urgently begin real cuts in greenhouse gas emissions and to take the hard decisions necessary to transform the global economy from one based on fossil fuels to a renewable energy future. Only in this way can we avoid the warming scenarios predicted – or worse.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT:

- Luisa Tam +852 9014 5259 or Susan Cavanagh +31 6 212 969 10

Photos available