Northwest Russia Energy Report Executive Summary
The demographic and economic situation
The region studied was demarcated by the "Northwest" power grid system. It encompasses the regions of Karelia, Pskov, Novgorod, Leningrad (including the city of St Petersburg) and Murmansk (with 10 million inhabitants or 7% of the total population of the Russian Federation). St. Petersburg is the administrative centre of the region; half of the Northwest Russian population lives there. Two-thirds of all direct foreign investments made in Northwest Russia during the first half of 1996 were invested in St. Petersburg (about $40 million). The most important economic activities are mining (iron ore and aluminium), the paper industry, metal-working and the food industry.
Power consumption, power supply
Power consumption in Northwest Russia is about 7% of the Russian Federation's total consumption. In 1991 it was about 71 TWh. From 1990 to 1992 it decreased by 15%, following the economic structural crisis.
The most important consumption sector is industry with a 60% share. Private households and the service sector account for about one third of the total electricity consumption. The total generating capacity of Northwest Russia is 19,870 MW.
Nuclear power in Northwest Russia
Altogether there are eight nuclear reactors operating at two locations with a total production of 5,760 MW. This is about one-quarter of total nuclear power capacity in the Russian Federation. At the Kola nuclear power plant there are two VVER-440/230 and two VVER-440/213 reactors (total production 1,760 MW). At the Leningrad site there are four RBMK type reactors each producing 1,000 MW.
All the reactors in Northwest Russia are relatively old. Unit 4 at Kola, has been operating for 12 years, and is the "youngest" reactor. Two units (Kola-3 and Leningrad-4) have been operating for 15 years, and Leningrad-3 for 17 years. Four of the eight reactors - the first series of each reactor type - have been on the grid for more than 20 years.
The life spans for Kola-1 and Kola-2 are projected to end in 2003 and 2004. According to current plans the remaining two units are supposed to be shut down between 2011 and 2014. Fundamental, expensive renovation work on pressure tubes will be necessary at Leningrad by 2000 (Unit 2) and 2005 (Units 3 and 4) at the latest.
Development of power consumption
There are four "official" scenarios for the development of power consumption in Northwest Russia. Three of the "official" prognoses have clearly overestimated the demand for power given comparison to the actual figures for 1995 - the official government scenario overestimated by 36%, the International Energy Agency (IEA) by 9% and the IEA / World Bank scenario by 7%. Only the scenario in the Joint Electric Power Alternatives Studies is within the range of actual developments.
The Greenpeace scenarios developed by the Oeko-Institut calculate that, starting in 1997, power consumption will no longer decrease. In the "trend" scenario it is expected that consumption will remain constant until 2000, and could then increase until 2010, when it will reach the 1990 level. In the "efficiency" scenario, which assumes a forced energy savings policy, power consumption stagnates for a longer time and by 2010 increases only to 57 TWh. This corresponds to 78 % of the level of demand for power in 1990, or a savings potential of more than 20%.
Energy turnaround in Northwest Russia
The level of expected energy needs has a decisive influence on the capacity requirements.
To increase the efficiency of the energy output, the following options are available: Existing fossil fuel (coal and oil) power plants can be made more efficient by using modern technologies. Increases in output of 1,000 MW can be expected through such renovation. The same amount of fuel could produce 25% more power. The investment costs for such measures could be put at about 1,700DM per kW. This increase in capacity is equivalent to the capacity of more than two reactors at Kola.
By replacing old gas-fired power plants with modern combined cycle power plants that are more than 50% electrically efficient, capacity could be increased by 40%. This corresponds to a capacity of 570 MW or more than one reactors at Kola. Investment costs are around 1,000 DM/kW. Through the development of cogeneration technology in urban regions of Northwest Russia (87% of the population lives in urban areas), another 4,000 MW of power could be potentially realised. Investment costs are 1,000 DM/kW. This measure alone would be enough to take all the RBMK reactors at Leningrad off the grid. In addition, the diversion of heat to households for heating and warm water would help save on the fuel used for these purposes and have a positive impact on costs and the environment.
Efficiency gains of 80 to 100 MW could be attained by energy savings made directly at the power plants (efficient motors, pumps and improved circuit technology). These measures would cost about 800 DM/kW. Existing hydroelectric plants could be improved by the modernisation of turbines, generators and water flow to and from a plant, increasing capacity by 150 MW. These costs are between 600 and 1,000 DM/kW. Wind energy in Northwest Russia has substantial development potential. Wind power potential is 600 MW in the coastal region of St. Petersburg alone, and in all of Northwest Russia it is 2,000 to 3,000 MW.
These measures could completely replace both the installed capacity of nuclear power plants and their power production.
These measures encompass the modernisation and expansion of conventional power plants and the development of the renewable energy sources of water and wind. In contrast, safety considerations as well as economic analyses show that backfitting the old nuclear power plant complex in Northwest Russia would, on the one hand, create significantly higher costs and on the other hand, not meet acceptable western safety standards. It must be clearly stated here that "western safety standards" cannot be cited as an adequate criterion of proof of sufficient safety at all. It can only be used as a clear indication that these reactors are presently in such poor condition that they absolutely must - given the assumption of a certain responsibility toward the environment and human life - be shut down immediately.
Construction of the VVER-640 reactors (640 MW capacity) has begun at the new Kola-2 and Sosnovy Bor (next to the Leningrad plant) sites. The decision to begin construction was based on the planned shutdown of the ageing reactors currently in operation there. Two reactors are planned to be built at the Kola-2 site. According to current estimates, financial requirements just for the three units planned are between 5 and 7.5 billion DM.
Alternatives to developing the nuclear power in Northwest Russia
An economic evaluation of the measures described above for the non-nuclear power plants shows that the efficiency scenario - where there would be a markedly higher availability of electrical output - would require 3.5 billion DM less than in the reference scenario. This efficiency scenario would thus release an additional 3.5 billion DM for further measures that could be implemented on the demand side (energy savings, more efficient use of energy).
Another energy policy option to reduce unnecessary risk potential in energy production relatively quickly is to reduce electricity exports. Northwest Russia currently exports 6.4 TWh of power, which means that a capacity of 1000 MW, equivalent to one reactor unit at Leningrad, produces power solely for export. Finland consumes about 80% (5.1 TWh) of exports; the remaining 20% goes to the Baltic states (1.3 TWh).
The current attractiveness of exports is based on the fact that nuclear power plants, while extraordinarily risky, have been depreciated, and incur only variable costs (of fuel, personnel, etc.). Profits (foreign currency) are now made at high cost to the environment and high risk of accident and danger to human life not only in Northwest Russia. The attractiveness of exports will depend in the future on the relationship between market prices and costs. It is to be expected in future that exporting electricity will only be an option if there is a satisfactory economic outcome. Gas-fired power plants continue to be in a significantly more favourable position for producing power than modernised or newly constructed nuclear power plants.
Conclusion
All options considered for power production show that - separate from all controversy on the use of nuclear energy - the strategy of improving the efficiency of conventional power plants and developing renewable energy sources is far more economically attractive than the expensive and risky utilisation of nuclear power plants.
