World Nuclear Arsenals 1996

At the beginning of 1996, there were some 21,000 operational nuclear weapons in the world. Divided among six countries, nearly 95 percent of the world's nuclear weapons are in the possession of the U.S. and Russia.

Half a decade after the ending of the Cold War, none of the nuclear powers display any willingness to give up their nuclear arsenals. Instead, all are consolidating their nuclear forces at lower levels, adjusting their nuclear strategies to new post-Cold War missions, and all continue to modernize their nuclear forces.

Sea-based nuclear forces are attaining a new prominence in the post-Cold War era. While all U.S. and Russian land-based missiles (ICBMs) will be limited to carrying one nuclear warhead under the START II Treaty, strategic submarines will continue to carry offensive submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) with multiple warheads. The sea is the only place where strategic nuclear operations continue largely as they did during the Cold War. The U.S. and Russia both plan to put about half of their future deployable strategic nuclear warheads at sea; France nearly 90 percent; while Britain will have its entire nuclear arsenal on submarines.

Since the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) was signed in 1987 and the Bush-Gorbachev proposals of 1991, there have been no new arms control agreements or initiatives to constrain or prohibit non-strategic nuclear forces although they represent almost a quarter of the world's nuclear stockpile and proliferant states are more likely first to develop tactical rather than strategic nuclear weapons.

The United States

The U.S. continues to modernize its nuclear arsenal, albeit at much lower rate than during the Cold War. New Trident nuclear- powered ballistic missile submarines and B-2 long-range bombers continue to enter service, and major upgrades are underway on both the Trident SLBMs and land-based Minuteman ICBMs. Moreover, the U.S. plans to "reproduce" hundreds of nuclear warheads to replace aging or "unsafe" warheads in the stockpile. This includes a new version of the B-61 air-dropped nuclear bomb to replace the older B-53 bomb in the year 2000 for the purpose of being able to destroy underground facilities.

Under START II, it is widely perceived that the number of U.S. nuclear weapons will be reduced to 3,500 warheads by 2003. But the reality is different: the Clinton administration plans to retain a nuclear arsenal more than twice that size. START II does not require nuclear warheads to be destroyed, so the Clinton administration will keep another 2,500 intact warheads in reserve as a "hedge" which can be "uploaded" onto operational platforms (e.g. submarine missiles and bombers) to quickly "reconstitute" the force level back to the START I treaty size if this is deemed necessary. Moreover, the START II treaty will only affect deployed strategic nuclear warheads, but the U.S. will also keep 950 warheads for non-strategic forces (these will be a combination of air-dropped bombs and submarine fired sea-launched cruise missiles (SLCMs)).

Russia (CIS)

Russia continues to try to upgrade the SS-N-20 SLBM on board the six Typhoon class (Project 941) nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines with a new SLBM, the SS-N-26. A new nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine has been designed, and the Russian Navy is hoping to receive financing to proceed with its construction. Also, SS-25 (Topol) ICBMs continue to be produced and deployed; plans call for several hundred more to enter service by 2003.

In addition to the 3,500 operational warheads permitted under START II, like with the U.S.'s arsenal, the actual size of Russia's future nuclear stockpile will be much larger. Russia may keep approximately an additional 3,000 non-strategic nuclear warheads which are not counted under START II. Russia also may chose to retain a reserve of thousands of additional warheads.

France

French President Jacques Chirac announced in February 1996 that France will scrap its land-based nuclear missile force, thus making France the second nuclear power after the U.K. to abandon a "triad" of nuclear forces. This plan will eliminate the 18 operational SSBS S3D missiles deployed in southern France as well as 30 Hades missiles and their associated TN90 warheads held in storage.

Yet at the same time, President Chirac disclosed plans to modernize France's sea- and air-based nuclear forces. This includes deployment in 2010-2015 of a new SLBM, designated the M51, on board four new Triomphant class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines, scheduled to enter service between 1996 and 2005. A new nuclear air-launched missile, designated the ASMP+, will also be built for entry into service around 2007. It is thought that the six nuclear tests conducted by France in the South Pacific between September 1995 and January 1996 were partly used to complete the development of the new warheads for the M51 and ASMP+ missiles.

China

Unlike the other nuclear powers, China has not announced any reductions in its nuclear stockpile as a result of the end of the Cold War.

Modernization of Chinese nuclear forces includes development of two new ICBMs (the DF-31 and DF-41) which are expected to be deployed in the late 1990s and around 2010, respectively. The DF-41 will be China's first missile with multiple warheads. A new SLBM, the JL-2 (CSS-N-4), is also under development for deployment in the late 1990s. It has a range of nearly five times that of China's current SLBM.

United Kingdom

The U.K. government has decided to phase out all air-delivered nuclear bombs by 1998. After that, the entire operational nuclear stockpile will be deployed on board a fleet of four new nuclear-powered Vanguard class ballistic missile submarines carrying U.S.-made Trident SLBMs. The second of the class, the HMS Victorious, recently entered service. This arrangement will slightly reduce the U.K. nuclear arsenal to a maximum of 384 nuclear warheads.

In addition to a strategic role with multiple warheads, Trident SLBMs on board U.K. ballistic missile submarines will also have a tactical mission, replacing or augmenting that of the RAF bombs being phased out. According to press accounts, the HMS Victorious deployed in January 1996 with a mix of single-warhead "sub-strategic" and multiple-warhead strategic Trident missiles.

Other Nuclear Powers

Main Sources: Robert S. Norris, et al., Nuclear Weapons Databook Volume V: British, French, and Chinese Nuclear Forces (Westview Press: Colorado, 1994); Robert S. Norris and William Arkin, "Russian (C.I.S.) Strategic Nuclear Forces, End of 1995," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, March/April 1996; Robert S. Norris and William Arkin, "U.S. Strategic Nuclear Forces, End of 1995," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, January/February 1996,; Thomas B. Cochran, "U.S. Inventories of Nuclear Weapons and Weapon-Useable Fissile Material," Natural Resources Defense Council, September 1995; Jane's Defence Weekly articles.

WORLD OPERATIONAL NUCLEAR ARSENALS, 1996*

* Thousands of additional nuclear warheads are held in reserve or awaiting dismantlement.
** Details of the Israeli arsenal are not known, but it is assumed only to consist of shorter range nuclear weapons and is thus counted as non-strategic.